How the basketball model works
How a game is priced · Markets and lines · Calibration and which markets are shown · Edge pills, H2H and form · Data, quota and pages
How a game is priced
- Elo per league with home advantage and a margin-of-victory multiplier, regressed 25% toward average between seasons.
- Ratings: points per 100 possessions scored/allowed and pace, exponentially weighted; possessions = FGA − ORB + TOV + 0.44×FTA (averaged for both teams). Games whose box score has not arrived yet (stats can lag 2–3 days) update from points at league pace.
- Four factors (eFG%, TOV%, ORB%, FT rate; Oliver weights 40/25/20/15) adjust the matchup. Elo and ratings are blended with weights fitted per league in the backtest.
Markets and lines
- Markets: margin, total and team points are normal with per-league spreads fitted on history; all include overtime. Lines are the Pinnacle line when stored (NBA, EuroLeague), otherwise a reference line: spread from Elo alone, totals from each team's recent points for/against. Integer bookmaker lines can push (void).
Calibration and which markets are shown
- Calibration: per league and market, raw/Platt/isotonic chosen on a walk-forward hold-out (each month calibrated only with earlier months). A market only appears if it beat the baseline (home-win rate / 50%) on Brier and log-loss. See Basketball → Calibration.
Edge pills, H2H and form
- Edge pills (Avg Pts scored|allowed, H2H Pts, Reb · Ast): a team is the clear edge only when its figure is more than 15% higher (>1.15×) than the other's — basketball-specific, because point ratios rarely reach football's 1.5×. Points rows use the geometric mean of the attack and defence ratios and both must favour the same team. No pill with fewer than 3 league games per team, 2 H2H meetings, or 3 usable box scores (rebounds/assists).
- H2H: stored meetings, either venue (W–L from the first-named team, average points). Form: last 10 results. B2B: played within 36 h.
Data and pages
- Data: stored results and box scores. Finished games are not requested again. Pinnacle prices are stored for NBA and EuroLeague only. No injuries, rest days beyond back-to-backs, or line-ups.
- Pages: game detail (calibrated markets, ratings, four factors, box score, form, H2H), closing-line value for NBA and EuroLeague (model % at least 5% above Pinnacle's no-margin price, odds 1.12–3.00), tracker, filters, teams, performance, calibration and price moves. These pages read stored data only.